台灣上空有一個巨大的債務堰塞湖

Posted on by 聊台灣論壇編輯部

很多人說美國國債越來越多,事實上台灣的債務也是萬分巨大,而這個巨大的債務堰塞湖就是讓台灣這20年來房市不斷飆漲的主要資金來源,我們由台灣中央銀行的 消費貸款及建築貸款餘額(110.11) 統計資料可以看到

截至2021年11月底為止台灣家戶的住宅貸款餘額是8兆6千9百億台幣,建商的土建融資貸款餘額有2兆7千5百億元,兩相加總,台灣目前的房地產貸款餘額高達11兆4千4百億台幣,而這個巨大的債務堰塞湖 就是懸在台灣頭頂的 「達摩克利斯之劍」 。

在這邊我個人做一個預測,隨著台灣人口逐漸老化工作人口開始減少(台灣的工作人口從2016年已經開始減少了),因為就算有抵押品銀行也不大會貸款給老人 , 以房養老的房產貸款也僅限於台北新北的精華區,老人持有的一般蛋白區的房地產是很難貸到款的 , 隨著有貸款資格的人逐漸減少, 整體台灣的房地產債務總額將到達一個峰值接著開始下降,房地產貸款餘額只要一開始減少,只要減少3個月台灣房地產將會立即崩盤,接著銀行會產生大量壞帳,屆時會有很多銀行破產,至於以房地產為主要資產的企業與個人財富也會受到巨大的衝擊。

41 thoughts on “台灣上空有一個巨大的債務堰塞湖”

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